Regulatory changes affecting HVAC equipment can be expected with any presidential transition, especially when political parties have contrasting philosophies. Such is the case in 2025, as the Trump administration has brought a different approach to regulations and rulemaking than its predecessor.
Typically, any rules passed during a presidential transition can be delayed in the short term. For example, regulations finalized in the Federal Register that have not yet reached their effective dates are commonly postponed up to 60 days to allow time to review any questions of fact, law and policy. However, underlying philosophical differences can also have more long-term effects.
All of these possibilities seem to hold true with the transition from the Biden to the Trump administration. For HVAC contractors impacted by these changes, navigating the uncertainty requires an understanding of the implications. If you want to know what these changes mean to your servicing business, here’s a quick recap of key developments.
“Day of deregulation” reconsiders the EPA rulings
In March, new Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Lee Zeldin announced a “day of deregulation.” The EPA took 31 actions in support of President Trump’s agenda, including the “reconsideration” of the EPA’s Technology Transitions Rule (2023).
As a refresher, recall that the rule set global warming potential (GWP) limits intended to phase down the demand for hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants in new equipment. Residential air conditioning was among the first sectors impacted, requiring a 700 GWP limit that took effect in January. Compliance timelines for other HVACR sectors are planned over the next several years.
For now, the EPA has not changed any GWP limits or implementation timelines. The 700 GWP limit is still in effect on residential air conditioning units, and many of you are beginning to see units with A2L refrigerants. However, the uncertainty has prompted numerous stakeholder responses.
HVAC industry organizations, manufacturers and the equipment supply chain have been preparing for the transition to A2Ls and tracking to meet regulatory deadlines. Developing next-gen equipment also provided an opportunity to improve system reliability, performance and efficiency.
Pausing these efforts could stall the roll-out of these advancements. Reversing the transition could mean returning to previous-generation technologies, which would put significant investments already made at risk and require additional investments to transition back.
The EPA previously granted petitions for reconsideration of aspects of the Technology Transitions Rule. This included a revision to exclude R-410A condensing units as “specified components” in residential air conditioning to prevent a potentially perpetual replacement cycle. The EPA also intends to develop a proposed rule to reconsider the relevant provisions.
Uncertainty about efficiency tax credits from IRA
Incentives authorized under the previous administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are also in jeopardy. Many of these were designed to help homeowners and businesses ease the costs of decarbonization, including the transition to electric heat pumps and efforts to reduce reliance on traditional fossil-fuel heating methods.
The new administration has paused unobligated funds tied to the $8.8B of rebates associated with the Home Electrification and Appliance Rebate (HEAR) and Home Efficiency Rebates (HOMES) programs, distributed through state energy offices. Previously allocated funds appear to be safe at the moment.
Congress is currently working through budgetary reconciliations, likely to last through the summer, and will determine whether IRA tax credits will be removed, preserved or given a shortened availability period. For now, 25C offers up to $2,000 for qualified heat pumps, water heaters, biomass stoves or biomass boilers, and is slated to continue through 2032.
A growing number of Republicans have spoken out about protecting these tax credits, stating that developing clean energy is critical to achieving the new administration’s goal of the U.S. being energy-dominant.
The potential for the EPA ENERGY STAR® program defunding
The EPA’s ENERGY STAR program is also at risk of defunding, with current EPA leadership plans for cutting the budget by 65 percent and eliminating “unnecessary” expenses.
Recently, the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) submitted a letter supporting the preservation of existing ENERGY STAR programs. Copeland and numerous leading private companies and industry organizations have joined in support, including:
- National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA)
- Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM)
- North American Association of Food Equipment Manufacturers (NAFEM)
Since the program’s inception in 1962, hundreds of manufacturers have actively participated in achieving ENERGY STAR certification. As the AHRI letter states, partners in this non-regulatory (i.e., voluntary) program have ultimately delivered robust, efficient products to American consumers.
Confusion over DOE energy-efficiency standards
Recent announcements regarding postponing and reversing HVAC efficiency standards have led to confusion about the status of Department of Energy (DOE) efficiency standards across various types of HVACR equipment.
The most recent efficiency increases (SEER2 and HSPF2) for residential and commercial central air conditioning and heat pump (CAC/HP) equipment took effect in 2023, outside of the 60 congressional day review window. Per the anti-backsliding provision in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), these levels cannot be rolled back easily.
Don’t panic and stay informed.
Over the next few months, the HVAC industry will likely learn more about these issues and encounter unexpected new developments. With any administration change, we know from experience that the regulatory wheels turn slowly. Staying informed, objective and calm about the implications is wise as we wait for more clarity. For our part, Copeland is committed to staying current on these changes and helping the industry make sense of this dynamic regulatory landscape.
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