As water heating emerges as a major front in building decarbonization efforts, contractors need to understand how heat pump technology is reshaping this market. During ACCA Platinum Strategic Partner Copeland’s recent webinar, “Lead the Charge in Water Heating Decarbonization: A Contractor’s Guide to Regulations, Incentives, and Next Generation Solutions”, Market Manager Ross Moore leveraged his 10+ years of HVACR experience to explain the technical and regulatory drivers behind this transition.
ACCA members can access the full webinar recording here.
Highlights from “Lead the Charge in Water Heating Decarbonization: A Contractor’s Guide to Regulations, Incentives, and Next Generation Solutions”
Copeland’s role in the water heating market
Moore began by grounding attendees on Copeland’s scope. Now a standalone $5 billion company following its sale two years ago, Copeland’s business extends beyond compression — 81% compression and 19% controls. This combination matters as water heating systems become more complex than traditional fossil fuel equipment.
Moore emphasized Copeland’s global perspective as an advantage. Operating across commercial, industrial, cold chain, and residential markets in multiple countries, the company has experience with heat pump technologies and regulations that have existed in Europe and Asia for years but are newer to North America.
A broad scope
With over 2,300 research and engineering colleagues, 500,000 square feet of lab space across eight countries, and the Helix Innovation Center focused on emerging industry challenges, Copeland’s global reach and research and development capabilities position the company to help guide the North American market through the water heating transition. Moore also noted Copeland’s regulatory engagement through partnerships with organizations like ACCA.
Defining water heating applications
Moore distinguished between two main categories of heat pump systems:
- Heat pump water heaters provide only domestic hot water for sinks, showers, and laundry.
- Hydronic heat pumps use a secondary loop to circulate heated water through a building for space heating and cooling, plus domestic hot water. These replace traditional boiler systems.
Within each category, systems can be either unitary (all components in one appliance, similar to a packaged HVACR unit) or split (with components like outdoor heat pumps separated from indoor water tanks).
Key considerations for heat pump transitions
Moore outlined several factors that determine heat pump selection for water heating applications:
- Source type and temperature requirements: System performance depends on whether the heat pump is an air source, water source, or ground source. Leaving water temperature requirements matter — 140°F is easier to achieve than 180°F.
- Retrofit complexity: Traditional boilers typically design for 180°F, so retrofit applications need more capable systems than new construction.
- Climate needs: Cold climate capability varies by region. Moore noted he lives in Ohio, where cold weather is a consideration, while Florida contractors may not need that feature.
- Regulatory factors: Global warming potential requirements exist at the federal level, but also vary by state and municipality.
Application type also drives decisions: does the system need to provide only domestic hot water, or does it need to handle space heating as well? New construction versus retrofit installations require different approaches.
Decarbonization vs. electrification
Moore clarified the distinction between two terms often used interchangeably:
- Decarbonization refers to activities aimed at decreasing greenhouse gas emissions.
- Electrification describes the process of converting fossil fuel-burning appliances to electrical power.
Heat pumps serve as one tool for decarbonization by enabling the shift away from fossil fuel applications.
Market projections show major shift ahead
Moore presented data showing the anticipated transition from fossil fuels to electric heat pumps in both residential hydronic heating and water heating.
Residential hydronic heating
Roughly 96% of current systems use fossil fuel or condensing boilers. Copeland projects this will shift dramatically by 2034, with electric heat pumps potentially capturing up to 45% of the market.
Key drivers include:
- Environmental and regulatory requirements at state and local levels
- Utility incentives for electrifying the grid
- Rebates and tax credits for contractors and homeowners
Moore encouraged contractors to research regional rebates and tax credits available in their areas.
Residential water heating
The shift here is driven more heavily by federal regulation. Current heat pump water heater adoption sits at roughly 2%, but Copeland anticipates this growing to 30% by 2034.
Key factors include:
- The National Appliance Energy Conservation Act (NAECA4), which takes effect in 2028 and sets efficiency levels that essentially require more heat pump water heaters
- Double-digit year-over-year growth already happening, particularly in California and the Northwest and Northeast regions
- State-level initiatives in progressive states like California pushing heat pump water heater adoption ahead of federal requirements
Moore noted that commercial markets show similar patterns, with fossil fuel boilers expected to decline as hydronic heat pumps and electric systems gain market share.
Regional considerations and emissions impact
Moore presented data showing water heating remains primarily fossil fuel-based across all U.S. regions. Even in areas with cleaner grids like Florida, natural gas dominates. Over 80% of electric water heaters currently installed are base efficiency models rather than heat pump systems.
Water heating ranks as the second-largest greenhouse gas emission contributor in homes, behind space heating but ahead of space cooling. This makes it a significant target for decarbonization efforts.
Regulatory landscape complexity in North America
The regulatory environment for water heating varies significantly across federal, state, and local levels, which is why Copeland works with agencies across the country to help educate OEMs and distributors on compliance requirements. These include:
- Department of Energy establishes minimum efficiency standards at the federal level.
- Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulates refrigerants allowed in systems.
- ENERGY STAR and Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE) focus on mid-tier and high-tier cost-effective solutions, working with state, local, and utility companies on rebates and incentives.
- Progressive states like California and New York may implement their own efficiency or fuel choice requirements. New York recently announced requirements for lower global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants that exceed federal standards.
Copeland’s heat pump technology evolution
While heat pump water heaters may be new to North America, Copeland has over 20 years of global experience with dedicated heat pump applications. The company’s timeline shows steady advancement:
- 2022: Fixed speed and on-off compressors dedicated to heating performance
- Since then: Vapor injection technology enabling colder climate operation with more heating capacity, variable speed systems, inverters, electronic expansion valves, and dedicated modules or subsystems
Vapor injection allows compressors to operate at lower ambient temperatures while delivering the high condensing temperatures needed for water heating. Moore noted that this technology is particularly important for these applications.
How Copeland supports OEMs
Moore explained that Copeland doesn’t sell systems directly to the market. Instead, the company partners with OEMs — boiler manufacturers, water heating manufacturers, and traditional HVACR manufacturers. Copeland’s Technical Services Team provides customer support, helping manufacturers understand available compression options, coefficients, and modeling so they can integrate compressors into reliable, efficient systems that are easy for contractors to service.
Water heating’s unique operating requirements
Moore used compressor operating envelopes to illustrate why water heating differs from traditional HVACR:
- Space cooling typically operates in high evaporating and high condensing temperature ranges
- Space heating runs in middle to lower evaporating temperatures with varying condensing temperatures
- Water heating requires higher condensing temperatures due to higher leaving water temperature requirements, creating unique operating conditions
While there’s overlap between applications, water heating has distinct needs requiring different compressor technologies. Moore showed that space cooling and heating rely heavily on fixed speed and two-stage scroll and rotary compressors. Water heating systems commonly need variable speed and vapor injection due to the wider operating envelope. Some applications even use semi-hermetic reciprocating compressors with CO2 to achieve 200°F water temperatures.
Copeland’s product range and refrigerant experience
Moore displayed Copeland’s compression offerings: scroll compressors in various sizes, rotary, semi-hermetic reciprocating, and screw technology. Different types and sizes are necessary because the company serves applications ranging from residential homes to industrial food processing.
He also highlighted Copeland’s familiarity with different refrigerants. While North America discusses next-generation refrigerants, many ultra-low GWP options being considered are natural refrigerants like propane, CO2, and ammonia. Copeland has experience with these in Europe, Asia, and other applications. Moore said this global experience helps Copeland partner with OEMs, contractors, and ACCA to ease the transition.
Resources for contractors and OEMs
Moore directed attendees to several Copeland resources:
- Water heating landing page with information on vapor injection and other solutions
- Copeland retrofit article focused on residential hydronic heating
- YouTube channel with training videos on compressor types and modulation technologies
- Copeland Mobile app for field troubleshooting, compressor information, and application engineering bulletins
Q&A highlights
On refrigerants: Moore explained that several options exist depending on design requirements and regional considerations:
- R134a is common in current heat pump water heaters and will likely transition to R513A — both are A1 refrigerants that are safe and easy to apply with minimal building code restrictions
- R410A applications will likely transition to R454B and R32
- CO2 is already used in some applications as a natural refrigerant that achieves very high leaving water temperatures
The choice depends on the market segment and the specific application.
On secondary loops: Moore confirmed that secondary loops in hydronic systems do affect capacity. OEMs, contractors, and suppliers must account for this through variable speed compressors, vapor injection, boosters inside the home, improved insulation, or heat exchanger design.
Moore closed by thanking attendees and encouraging them to stay engaged with Copeland’s ongoing water heating education efforts as the industry transitions to more sustainable solutions.
ACCA members can access the full webinar recording here.
Copeland is an ACCA Platinum Strategic Partner. To learn more about our Strategic Partner Program, contact partners@acca.org or visit acca.org/partners.
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